Sixteen years have passed since the signing of the peace agreement that brought an end to Tajikistan’s brutal civil war. There was great hope in 1997 that Tajikistan had been handed a fresh start, and a viable political future.  However, the country’s present situation remains bleak. While the government of Emomali Rahmon has overseen considerable economic growth and maintained a semblance of political stability, festering beneath the surface are a number of economic, social and political difficulties that could tear this fragile country apart.  So what are these challenges?  And how can Tajikistan continue as a viable nation-state?  This presentation provides an update on Tajikistan’s situation, and makes some tentative findings related to this geopolitically important country’s future. 

Brenton Clark  is a PhD candidate at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies. His thesis research is on the relationship between Iran and Tajikistan in the modern era. He has recently completed extensive fieldwork in both countries.