Genevieve Jacobs (ABC Canberra) will facilitate a discussion with Professor Amin Saikal AM, FASSA examining the fate of Afghanistan leading up to the 2014 withdrawal of troops.
Afghanistan is the only country in the world to have gained the dubious reputation of having been invaded by all three major powers of the last one and half centuries: Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the United States. Yet all these powers have failed to tame the country according to their ideological and geopolitical preferences.
As most of the troops of the United States and its NATO and non-NATO allies are set to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, Afghanistan is once again in transition. Yet, it is not clear to what.
Whilst the Taliban-led insurgency remains strong and robust, there are many questions about the fate of Afghanistan.
This talk focused on five issues:
> the achievements and failures of the US and its allies, including Australia, in Afghanistan,
> the prospects for a peaceful transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to another figure in the April 2014 election,
> the ability of the Afghan security forces in handling the insurgency,
> the chances of a viable settlement with the Taliban and
> possible scenarios that could transpire in determining the future of Afghanistan and the role of the US and other players in a traditional zone of rivalry and conflict.
About the speaker, Professor Amin Saikal AM, FASSA
Amin Saikal is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at The Australian National University, and Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences.